AfPak plan given poor marks?

Mike was early in saying Iraq was sliding into civil war, was one of the first to call the surge a success (he saw it from a grounds-eye view), and left Iraq for Afghanistan almost two years ago because that was where he felt the center shift. He drew attention to the crisis brewing in Afghanistan long before even McCain.

Of course now all that is conventional wisdom. While he could be wrong this time, it is worrying that, as he says:

There is little in the Obama plan to be excited about. Some have called it "bold," but from my boots it looks like a recipe for disaster.

We are steaming toward failure in AfPak, but with more steam than ever before.

I am not read on enough to know the truth, and as in Iraq, I am quite sure the "truth" is shrouded in a veil.

At any rate, if Mike is saying it, it is worth considering.

Winning Ramadi Primer

Today I am adding Michael J. Totten to the Sergeant's Required Reading. Not that he needs my endorsement, nor that he is just earning it - it has been delienquency on my part for not adding his site sooner. But with the workload lately I am only able to blog because I can't sleep.

I encourage everyone to read Michael's piece Anbar Awakens Part I: The Battle of Ramadi, especialy Soldiers going down range now with us. It provides great back story to the points being argued over in Washington the last two days.

Ramadi is the capital of Anbar, and the Al Qaeda proclaimed "Capital of the Islamic State of Iraq.” This is the province and city those arguing for withdraw pointed to as hopeless and proof we would never suceed in Iraq. I sat dumbfounded today as I listened to those same persons write off the success in one of the worst areas of Iraq because it is primarily Sunni. Meaning these tactics just won't work with Shia or mixed areas.

So if we lose we lose, and if we win we lose? Again politicians suck. Even if you favor withdrawl don't buy everything these people are selling, the truth is that both extremes are full of it.

Anyhow, do read his post for some on the ground truth you won't hear elsewhere.

“I didn’t realize until I got here that the problem in Anbar Province was 100 percent Al Qaeda,” he said. “The old Baath Party insurgency here is completely finished. That war was won and Americans, including me, had no idea it even happened.”

If you want to dig in more jump over to Michael Yon's four part Ghosts of Anbar - although it will make more sense if you have a basic understanding of Counterinsurgency(pdf), it stands well on it's own.

Read and discuss amongst yourselves.

Vignette of change - Haifa Street

Haifa street near the Green Zone in Baghdad has come to symbolize the futility of America's efforts in Iraq as a whole. Right outside the safety of the Green Zone, the insurgents controlled a major street. American and Iraqi forces would clear it one day, and the insurgents would take it right back.

Here is a NY Times video from January. The fighting that night was described as "some of the most intense fighting of the nearly four-year-old war, a 10-hour-long firefight involving almost 1,000 U.S. and Iraqi troops along Haifa Street in central Baghdad, a stronghold of the Sunni insurgency."

Today, Haifa street tells a different story, one that shows what GEN Petraeus's tactics can accomplish, if given enough time and troops. Other COIN experts have been saying the same thing - we are finally executing the right plan, hopefully not too late.

Whether we can will it, given where we are as a Nation is another matter. You decide.